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A radio futurologist writing about what happens when radio and new platforms collide

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The un-spun digital radio figures

Posted on Thursday, October 28th, 2010 at 10:43 pm. #

For sale / may let

There have been a few headline figures in the press, and on blogs, today about digital radio’s takeup figures in the UK. It’s probably useful just to reiterate the actual figures, in case the endless spinning of “radio analysts” begins to confuse.

The only valid comparison between RAJAR figures is year-on-year.
It’s well documented that people listen to radio differently during the summer than during the winter. Summer means more outdoor listening, more mobile listening, and – of course – some disruption due to summer holidays. The only valid way to discount these issues is to compare figures from the same time a year ago – when the weather was similar, and peoples’ behaviour was similar. To try and compare quarter-on-quarter is always unsafe and misleading: even when it apparently tells a great story. In these blog posts, I generally try to compare year-on-year.

Given that, here are some year-on-year figures for you..

  • Listening hours (TSL) on new platforms is up 22.8%
  • Listening on DAB is up by 20.8%
  • Share of radio listening is now 24.8%, up from 21.1% a year ago.

Now, let’s also be clear. DAB listening has dropped slightly quarter-on-quarter. Further, the 24.8% digital listening share is not growing fast enough for the aspiration for 50% by 2013 to happen, which’ll trigger a potential digital switchover. I’m not too distraught; I’ve argued in the past that a government mandated switchover is not good news for the industry (and argued that it’ll not happen anyway).

The reality is that much radio listening occurs on a device with a free, bundled-in, radio. Whether it’s your new car, or your new mobile phone; whether it’s the hifi or the MP3 player, these are devices which are still analogue radio, not digital radio. A third of everyone in the UK lives in a house with a DAB Digital Radio set; but there are many devices that have yet to make the switch. It’s this area that the industry needs to concentrate its work; and it’ll be slow to take hold, too.

Be that as it may, if you’re a self-styled ‘radio analyst’, and regularly accuse the digital radio industry of spinning figures, it’s probably a good idea not to spin the figures yourself. Digital listening is growing, not falling.

8 comments

Michael Cook
commenting at October 28th, 2010 at 11:28 pm

(Michael has requested that this blog post be removed.)

jon
commenting at October 29th, 2010 at 4:35 pm

Interesting read, James.

I’m in total agreement on the mobile devices market here; we’re all being pushed towards tablets, iPhones and the like, and yet hardly any of these manufacturers are installing DAB players on their devices.

I believe Nokia have made steps in this direction, but with so much mobile internet available (and subsequently the likes of last.fm and spotify) – is there any real need for a mobile DAB player?

We all get annoyed at radio stations’ poor ‘playlists’, so why subject ourselves to it when we can make our own selections through a different medium?

James Cridland
commenting at October 29th, 2010 at 8:25 pm

Jon – you could also, rightly, question whether there’s any need for a music radio station at all.

The future of music radio is the bits between the songs, rather than the music itself. It’s why the BBC does rather well, I think, in the figures.

Mark
commenting at October 30th, 2010 at 5:06 pm

Interesting article, James.

Jon – surely the reason that few mobile devices such as iPhone have DAB is because the primary markets are the USA & Japan, where different digital radio systems are used.

If DMB/DAB+ takes off in China, South Korea & other Asian countries this may change but this highlights the drawbacks of using different digital radio systems around the world, and the North American HD Radio isn’t helped by this either.

Terry Purvis
commenting at October 31st, 2010 at 1:44 pm

I’m not an expert by any means just an observer, but I think DAB is going to be a white elephant for several reasons.

1. It is old and now outdated technology, by 2015 DAB will be have been around some 30 years. It cannot be easily upgraded and those now owing receivers would have to buy new sets to get a system with better codecs.

2. There is no common international standard, so receivers are country specific.

3. The UK system doesn’t provide the technical quality or coverage one expects from a “digital” service.

4. Receivers are still expensive, rather large and from I’ve read on non-radio forums, not that reliable.

5. Broadcasters, apart from the BBC, are not designing services available exclusive DAB which are likely to persuade the public to buy a DAB set.

6. Despite the positive and constant spinning by the industry it has not captured the imagination of the general public at large, growth may occurring but there is no groundswell surge to buy DAB receivers.

In conclusion if anyone expects a “switch-over” to happen at the current rate of growth by 2015 then they are going to be sadly disappointed.

Only the general public dictate can the growth of DAB and they ain’t that interested. The industry must face that fact, accept it, then actually bloody do something about it.

If you want people to buy big, clunky, battery sucking receivers which use a mediocre 30 year old codec which doesn’t sound that “fantastic” then the only thing left is to start putting something on DAB that people are willing to invest their hard earned cash in buying a receiver to hear.

How likely is that to happen?

Unfortunately articles like the one you have written here about “the facts” will do none of these things, just as the rest of persuasion techniques currently being employed.

And the Radio Academy bash should have been a crisis meeting where people thrashed out a really creative plan to get interest in DAB really going, not a motivational back-slapping exercise where people came away feeling better about the future of the industry.

James Cridland
commenting at October 31st, 2010 at 1:45 pm

OK, Terry, I’ll play… I’ll respond to these in a blog post.

Terry Purvis
commenting at October 31st, 2010 at 1:59 pm

There’s is no playing here I can assure you. I believe the industry is in big sh*t over DAB, really big, I’m merely expressing how I see it.

If DAB isn’t successful, and nothing I seen read or heard up to now convinces me it will be, then where does one go from there? The real consequences of failure haven’t been thought through I would suspect.

My brother has bought several DAB sets, all in the trash now and vow’s he’ll never get one again. What’s going to convince him and the many like him to spend yet more money on DAB?

Why DAB will be a failure (or not) - James Cridland
commenting at October 31st, 2010 at 2:33 pm

[...] Purvis is a reader of this blog, and comments to a blog post I made recently about “the unspun digital radio figures” by posting a number of reasons [...]

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